Homebuyers received an unexpected gift around the holidays as mortgage rates dropped rapidly late last year.
They fell from a peak of about 8% in the fall to the mid-6% range in late December, a level many economists and forecasters hadn’t anticipated until the end of 2024—if they were being optimistic. Now with the U.S. Federal Reserve poised to cut its own rates this year, the question on the minds of many aspiring homebuyers is just how low mortgage rates will drop this year.
Most of the real estate experts who spoke with Realtor.com® say they expect rates will stay in the 6% range this year, but some believe rates could slip into the 5% range by year’s end.
“The direction we’re headed is down this year,” says Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting and a former economist for the Federal Reserve. “But how far down … is a big question mark.”
Higher mortgage rates had effectively frozen the housing market last year. But they fell in mid-December after the Fed indicated that its campaign of raising interest rates to tame inflation was over—and the Fed could cut rates three times next year if inflation continues to moderate.
Mortgage rates are separate but directly influenced by the Fed’s short-term interest rates. So when the Fed reduces its rates, mortgage rates are likely to decrease.
“We expect a gradual reduction in mortgage rates, but it’s going to play out in fits and starts,” says Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “We could see rates tick a little higher before they continue to fall.”
Mortgage rates have, in fact, climbed a bit recently.
They averaged 6.75% for 30-year fixed-rate loans on Friday, up from a low of 6.61% in late December, according to Mortgage News Daily. The rise is a result of new unemployment data released last week that shows the economy is stronger than the Fed would prefer as it continues to fight inflation.
Many investors had expected the Fed to begin slashing its rates as early as March, which would likely have resulted in mortgage rates falling. But the Fed might keep rates high for longer as it considers the strong jobs data along with how much inflation is coming down. The more the economy cools, the quicker the Fed could cut rates.
“We will see some bumpiness and mild volatility as we go through January and February, but mortgage rates will keep heading modestly lower,” says David Stevens, CEO of Mountain Lake Consulting, which services the mortgage industry. “We could see mortgage rates by year end at the bottom of the 6% range, and we could potentially go into the [5% range] if we see softening in the economy.”
How low will mortgage rates go?
While real estate experts are divided on just how much mortgage rates will fall, most expect they will stay in the 6% range. However, some believe they can dip into the high 5% by the end of 2024.
“There’s every reason to believe that we continue to move in the right direction unless there’s something that comes out of nowhere, which has been the story of the last couple of years,” says Sahm.
A rate in the 5% range could provide buyers struggling with the worst housing affordability in decades with substantial savings. Buyers who purchased a median-priced home with a 5.5% mortgage rate would pay about $216 less a month for their mortgage than those who locked in a 6.5% rate. And they would save roughly $442 a month compared with buyers with a 7.5% rate. (This assumes buyers put down 20% on a $420,000 home.)
However, the days of the 2% and 3% rates offered during the COVID-19 pandemic aren’t likely to return.
“I don’t think we’ll ever see them again at those levels,” says Stevens.
The Fed wouldn’t reduce its rates by enough to bring mortgage rates down to those lows unless the U.S. economy was in dire straits.
“If we ended up back there, we’d be in a very bad recession,” says Sahm.
How lower mortgage rates will affect the housing market
Lower mortgage rates are already having an impact on the housing market.
When rates went down at the end of last year, New Jersey–based mortgage lender Shmuel Shayowitz saw more first-time homebuyers get pre-approved for loans. Even more encouraging were the conversations he began having with homeowners about how they would consider selling and moving into new homes when rates went down into the 5% range.
“Because the thought is rates will be lower, more people are comfortable jumping back into the market,” says Shayowitz, president of Approved Funding in River Edge, NJ.
Two years ago, mortgage rates in the mid-6% would have scared off (or priced out) many would-be buyers. By now, though, buyers have had time to get used to them. They might even seem like a bargain compared with the roughly 8% rates seen in October.
However, reduced rates might be a double-edged sword as more would-be buyers enter the market. The nation is still struggling with an extreme housing shortage. Additional competition for a limited number of homes for sale could usher in the return of bidding wars and push home prices even higher.
“It will cause a noteworthy amount of pickup in the market,” says Jacob Channel, the senior economist at LendingTree, an online financial services marketplace.
Many homeowners who snagged ultralow rates during the pandemic will remain reluctant to move and give up those savings. And mortgage rates and prices will still remain high. This will make purchasing a home a significant financial challenge for many buyers.
“The housing market’s not going to go crazy,” says Channel. “It’s not going to be as active as it was or as frenzied as it was when rates were record lows in 2020 and 2021.”
Clare Trapasso is the executive news editor of Realtor.com. She was previously a reporter for the Associated Press, the New York Daily News, and a Financial Times publication. She also taught journalism courses at several New York City colleges. Email clare.trapasso@realtor.com or follow @claretrap on X (formerly Twitter).
If you’re thinking about retirement or have already retired this year, it’s a good time to consider if your current house is still a good fit for the next chapter in your life.
Fortunately, you may be in a better position to make a move than you realize. Here are a few things to think about as you decide whether or not to sell and make a move.
How Long You’ve Been in Your Home
From 1985 to 2008, the average length of time homeowners typically stayed in their homes was only six years. But according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), that number is rising today, meaning many homeowners are living in their houses even longer (see graph below):
When you live in a home for a significant period of time, it’s natural for you to experience a number of changes in your life while you’re in that house. As those life changes and milestones happen, your needs may change. And if your current home no longer meets them, you may have better options waiting for you.
How Much Equity You’ve Gained
Additionally, if you’ve been in your house for more than a few years, you’ve likely built-up significant equity that can fuel your next move. That’s because the longer you’ve been in your house, the more likely it’s grown in value due to home price appreciation. Data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) illustrates that point (see graph below):
While home price growth varies by state and local area, the national average shows the typical homeowner who’s been in their house for five years saw it increase in value by nearly 60%. And the average homeowner who’s owned their home since 1991 saw it more than triple in value over that time.
Consider Your Retirement Goals
Whether you’re looking to downsize, relocate to a dream destination, or simply be closer to loved ones, your home equity can be a key to realizing your homeownership goals. NARshares that for recent home sellers, the primary reason to move was to be closer to loved ones.
Whatever your home goals are, a trusted real estate agent can work with you to find the best option. They’ll help you sell your current house and guide you through buying the home that’s right for your lifestyle today.
Bottom Line
Retirement can bring about major changes in your life, including what you need from your home. Let’s connect to explore the available homes in our area.
When you read about the housing market, you’ll probably come across some information about inflation or recent decisions made by the Federal Reserve (the Fed). But how do those two things impact you and your homebuying plans? Here’s what you need to know.
The Federal Funds Rate Hikes Have Stalled
One of the Fed’s primary goals is to lower inflation. In order to do that, they started raising the Federal Funds Rate to slow down the economy. Even though this doesn’t directly dictate what happens with mortgage rates, it does have an impact.
Recently inflation has started to cool, a signal those increases worked and are bringing inflation back down. As a result, the Fed’s hikes have gotten smaller and less frequent. In fact, there haven’t been any increases since July (see graph below):
And not only has the Fed decided not to raise the Federal Funds Rate the last three times the committee met, they’ve signaled there may actually be rate cuts coming in 2024. According to the New York Times (NYT):
“Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged in their final policy decision of 2023 and forecast that they will cut borrowing costs three times in the coming year, a sign that the central bank is shifting toward the next phase in its fight against rapid inflation.”
This indicates the Fed thinks the economy and inflation are improving. Why does that matter to you and your plans to buy a home? It could end up leading to lower mortgage rates and improved affordability.
Mortgage Rates Are Coming Down
Mortgage rates are influenced by a wide variety of factors, and inflation and the Fed’s actions (or as has been the case recently, inaction) play a big role. Now that the Fed has paused the increases, it looks more likely mortgage rates will continue their downward trend (see graph below):
Although mortgage rates may remain volatile, their recent trend combined with expert forecasts indicate they could continue to go down in 2024. That would improve affordability for buyers and make it easier for sellers to move since they won’t feel as locked-in to their current, low mortgage rate.
Bottom Line
The Fed’s decisions have an indirect impact on mortgage rates. By not raising the Federal Funds Rate, mortgage rates are likely to continue declining. Rely on a trustworthy real estate expert to give you expert advice about changes in the housing market and how they affect you.
If you’re thinking about moving, it’s important to know what’s happening in the housing market. Here’s an update on the supply of homes currently for sale. Whether you’re buying or selling, the number of homes in your area is something you should pay attention to.
In the housing market, there are regular patterns that happen every year, called seasonality. Spring is the peak homebuying season and also when the most homes are typically listed for sale (homes coming onto the market are known in the industry as new listings). In the second half of each year, the number of new listings typically decreases as the pace of sales slows down.
The graph below uses data from Realtor.com to provide a visual of this seasonality. It shows how this year (the black line) is breaking from the norm (see graph below):
Looking at this graph, three things become clear:
2017-2019 (the blue and gray lines) follow the same general pattern. These years were very typical in the housing market and their lines on the graph show normal, seasonal trends.
Starting in 2020, the data broke from the normal trend. The big drop down in 2020 (the orange line) signals when the pandemic hit and many sellers paused their plans to move. 2021 (the green line) and 2022 (the red line) follow the normal trend a bit more, but still are abnormal in their own ways.
This year (the black line) is truly unique. The steep drop off in new listings that usually occurs this time of year hasn’t happened. If 2023 followed the norm, the line representing this year would look more like the dotted black line. Instead, what’s happening is the number of new listings is stabilizing. And, there are even more new listings coming to the market this year compared to the same time last year.
What Does This Mean for You?
For buyers, new listings stabilizing is a positive sign. It means you have a more steady stream of options coming onto the market and more choices for your next home than you would have at the same time last year. This opens up possibilities and allows you to explore a variety of homes that suit your needs.
For sellers, while new listings are breaking seasonal norms, inventory is still well below where it was before the pandemic. If you look again at the graph, you’ll see the black line for this year is still lower than normal, meaning inventory isn’t going up dramatically and prices aren’t heading for a crash. And with less competition from other sellers than you’d see in a more typical year, your house has a better chance to be in the spotlight and attract eager buyers.
Bottom Line
Whether you’re on the hunt for your next home or thinking of selling, now might just be the perfect time to make your move. If you have questions or concerns about the availability of homes in your local area, connect with a real estate agent.
When it comes to what’s happening in the housing market, there’s a lot of confusion going around right now. You may hear one thing in conversation with your friends, see something totally different on the news, and read something on social media that contradicts both of those thoughts. And, if you’re thinking about making a move, that can leave you with a lot of lingering questions. That’s where a trusted local real estate agent comes in.
Here are the top 3 questions people are asking about today’s housing market, and the data to help answer them.
1. What’s Next for Mortgage Rates?
Mortgage rates are higher than they’ve been in recent years. And, if you’re looking to buy a home, that impacts how much you can afford. That’s why so many buyers want to know what’s ahead for mortgage rates. The answer to that question is: no one can say for certain, but here’s what we know based on historical trends.
There’s a long-standing relationship between mortgage rates and inflation. Basically, when inflation is high, mortgage rates tend to follow suit. Over the past year, inflation was up, so mortgage rates were as well. But inflation is easing now. And this is why the Federal Reserve has recently paused their federal funds rate hikes, which means many experts believe mortgage rates will begin to come down.
And in some ways, we’ve started to see hints of slightly lower mortgage rates in recent weeks. But it’s certainly been volatile and will likely continue to be that way going into next year. Some ongoing variation is to be expected, but the anticipation is, that in 2024, we’ll see a downward trend. As Aziz Sunderji, Strategist at Home Economics,says:
“The bottom line is that interest rates are likely to be lower-perhaps even lower than many optimists think – in the weeks and months to come.”
2. Where Are Home Prices Headed?
While there’s been a lot of concern prices would come crashing down this year, data shows that didn’t happen. In fact, home prices are rising in most of the nation. Experts say that trend will continue, just at a slower pace that’s much more normal for the housing market – and that’s a good thing.
To help show just how confident experts are in this continued appreciation, take a look at the Home Price Expectation Survey from Pulsenomics. It’s a survey of a national panel of over 100 economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists. As the graph below shows, the consensus is, that prices will keep climbing next year, and in the years to come.
3. Is a Recession Around the Corner?
While recession talk has been a common thing over the past few years, there’s good news on that front.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) polls experts on this topic regularly. And last year at this time, most of them thought a recession would have happened by now. But as experts look at all the leading indicators today, they’re changing their minds and saying a recession is getting less and less likely. The latest results show that more experts now think we’re not headed for another recession (see chart below):
This is big news for the housing market. And while the 48% to 52% split may seem close to half and half, the key thing to focus on is that the majority of these experts think we’ve avoided a recession already.
Bottom Line
The big takeaway? The data shows there isn’t cause for concern – there are actually more signs of hope. Let’s connect to talk more about the housing market questions on your mind as we head into the new year.
This time every year, homeowners who are planning to move have a decision to make: sell now or wait until after the holidays? Some sellers with homes already on the market may even remove their listing until the new year.
But the truth is, many buyers want to purchase a home for the holidays, and your house might be just what they’re looking for. As an article from Fortune Buildersexplains:
“ . . . while a majority of people take a step back from the real estate market during the holiday months, you may find when the temperature drops, your potential for a great real estate deal starts to rise.”
To help prove that point, here are four reasons you shouldn’t wait to sell your house.
1. The desire to own a home doesn’t stop during the holidays. While a few buyers might opt to delay their moving plans until January, others may need to move now because something in their life has changed. The buyers who look for homes at this time of year are usually motivated to make their move happen and are eager to buy. A recent article from Investopedia says:
“Anyone shopping for a new home between Thanksgiving and New Year’s is likely going to be a serious buyer. Putting your home on the market at this time of year and attracting a serious buyer can often result in a quicker sale.”
2. While the supply of homes for sale has increased a little bit lately, overall inventory is still lower than it was before the pandemic. What does that mean for you? If you work with an agent to price your house at market value, it could still sell quickly because today’s buyers are craving more options – and your home may be exactly what they’re searching for.
3. You can determine the days and times that are most convenient for you for home showings. That can help you minimize disruptions to your own schedule, which can be especially important during this busy time of year. Plus, you may find buyers are more flexible on when they’ll tour a house this time of year because they have more time off from work around the holidays.
4. And finally, homes decorated for the holidays appeal to many buyers. For those buyers, it’s easy to picture gathering with their loved ones in the home and making memories of their own. An article on selling at this time of year offers this advice:
“If you’re selling around a holiday and have decorations up, make sure they accent—not overpower—a room. Less is more.”
Bottom Line
There are plenty of good reasons to put your house on the market during the holiday season. Let’s chat and see if it’s the right time for you to sell.
Maybe you’re in the market for a home and are having a hard time finding the right one that fits your budget. Or perhaps you’re already a homeowner in need of extra income or a place for loved ones. Whether as a potential homebuyer or a homeowner with changing needs, accessory dwelling units, or ADUs for short, may be able to help you reach your goals.
“An ADU is a small residence that shares a single-family lot with a larger, primary dwelling.”
“An ADU is an independent, self-contained living space with a kitchen or kitchenette, bathroom and sleeping area.”
“An ADU can be located within, attached to, or detached from the main residence. It can be created out of an existing structure (such as a garage) or built anew.”
If you’re thinking about whether an ADU makes sense for you as a buyer or a homeowner, here’s some useful information and benefits that ADUs can provide. Keep in mind, that regulations for ADUs vary based on where you live, so lean on a local real estate professional for more information.
The Benefits of ADUs
Freddie Mac and the AARP identify some of the best features of ADUs for both buyers and homeowners:
Living Close by, But Still Separate: ADUs allow loved ones to live together while having separate spaces. That means you can enjoy each other’s company and help each other out with things like childcare, but also have privacy when needed. If this appeals to you, you may want to consider buying a home with an ADU or adding an ADU onto your house. According to Freddie Mac:
“Having an accessory dwelling unit on an existing property has become a popular way for homeowners to offer independent living space to family members.”
Aging in Place: Similarly, ADUs allow older people to be close to loved ones who can help them if they need it as they age. It gives them the best of both worlds – independence and support from loved ones. For example, if your parents are getting older and you want them nearby, you may want to buy a home with an ADU or build one onto your existing house.
Affordable To Build: Since ADUs are often on the smaller side, they’re typically less expensive to build than larger, standalone homes. Building one can also increase your property’s value.
Generating Additional Income: If you own a home with an ADU or if you build an ADU on your land, it can help generate rental income you could use toward your own mortgage payments. It’s worth noting that because an ADU exists on a single-family lot as a secondary dwelling, it typically cannot be sold separately from the primary residence. But that’s changing in some states. Work with a professional to understand your options.
These are a few of the reasons why many people who benefit from ADUs think they’re a good idea. As Scott Wild, SVP of Consulting at John Burns Research, says:
“It’s gone from a small niche in the market to really amuch more impactful part of new housing.”
Bottom Line
ADUs have some great advantages for buyers and homeowners alike. If you’re interested, reach out to a real estate professional who can help you understand local codes and regulations for this type of housing and what’s available in your market.
If you’re ready to buy a home but are having a hard time affording it on your own, or, if you have aging loved ones you need to care for, you might want to consider a multi-generational home.
Living with siblings, parents, and even grandparents can help you save money, give or receive childcare, and spend quality time together.
Let’s connect to find a home in your area that’s perfect for you and your loved one’s needs.
When it comes to selling your house, you’re probably trying to juggle the current market conditions and your own needs as you plan your move.
One thing that may be working in your favor is how few homes there are for sale right now. Here’s what you need to know about the current inventory situation and what it means for you.
The Supply of Homes for Sale Is Far Below the Norm
When you’re selling something, it helps if what you’re selling is in demand, but is also in low supply. Why? That makes it even more desirable since there’s not enough to go around. That’s exactly what’s happening in the housing market today. There are more buyers looking to buy than there are homes for sale.
To tell the story of just how low inventory is, here’s the latest information on active listings, or homes available for sale. The graph below uses data from Realtor.com to show how many active listings there were in September of this year compared to what’s more typical in the market.
As you can see in the graph, if you look at the last normal years for the market (shown in the blue bars) versus the latest numbers for this year (shown in the red bar), it’s clear inventory is still far lower than the norm.
What That Means for You
Buyers have fewer choices now than they did in more typical years. And that’s why you could still see some great perks if you sell today. Because there aren’t enough homes to go around, homes that are priced right are still selling fast and the average seller is getting multiple offers from eager buyers. Based on the latest data from the Confidence Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR):
69% of homes sold in less than a month.
2.6 offers: the average number of offers on recently sold homes.
An article from Realtor.com also explains how the limited number of houses for sale benefits you if you’re selling:
“. . . homes spent two weeks less on the market this past month than they did in the average September from 2017 to 2019 . . . as still-limited supply spurs homebuyers to act quickly . . .”
Bottom Line
Because the supply of homes for sale is so low, buyers desperately want more options – and your house may be just what they’re looking for. Let’s connect to get your house listed at the right price for today’s market. You could still see it sell quickly and potentially get multiple offers.
If you’re considering selling your house right now, it’s likely because something in your life has changed. And while things like mortgage rates play a big role in your decision, you don’t want that to overshadow why you thought about making a move in the first place.
It’s true mortgage rates are higher right now, and that has an impact on affordability. As a result, some homeowners are deciding they’ll wait to sell because they don’t want to move and have a higher mortgage rate on their next home.
But your lifestyle and your changing needs matter, too. As a recent article from Realtor.comsays:
“No matter what interest rates and home prices do next, sometimes homeowners just have to move—due to a new job, new baby, divorce, death, or some other major life change.”
Here are a few of the most common reasons people choose to sell today. You may find any one of these resonates with you and may be reason enough to move, even today.
Relocation
Some of the things that can motivate a move to a new area include changing jobs, a desire to be closer to friends and loved ones, wanting to live in your ideal location, or just looking for a change in scenery.
For example, if you just landed your dream job in another state, you may be thinking about selling your current home and moving for work.
Upgrading
Many homeowners decide to sell to move into a larger home. This is especially common when there’s a need for more room to entertain, a home office or gym, or additional bedrooms to accommodate a growing number of loved ones.
For example, if you’re living in a condo and your household is growing, it may be time to find a home that better fits those needs.
Downsizing
Homeowners may also decide to sell because someone’s moved out of the home recently and there’s now more space than needed. It could also be that they’ve recently retired or are ready for a change.
For example, you’ve just kicked off your retirement and you want to move somewhere warmer with less house to maintain. A different home may be better suited for your new lifestyle.
Change in Relationship Status
Divorce, separation, or marriage are other common reasons individuals sell.
For example, if you’ve recently separated, it may be difficult to still live under one roof. Selling and getting a place of your own may be a better option.
Health Concerns
If a homeowner faces mobility challenges or health issues that require specific living arrangements or modifications, they might sell their house to find one that works better for them.
For example, you may be looking to sell your house and use the proceeds to help pay for a unit in an assisted-living facility.
With higher mortgage rates and rising prices, there are some affordability challenges right now – but your needs and your lifestyle matter too. As a recent article from Bankratesays:
“Deciding whether it’s the right time to sell your home is a very personal choice. There are numerous important questions to consider, both financial and lifestyle-based, before putting your home on the market. . . . Your future plans and goals should be a significant part of the equation . . .”
Bottom Line
If you want to sell your house and find a new one that better fits your needs, let’s connect. That way, you’ll have someone to guide you through the process and help you find a home that works for you.
